On July 7, the spot steel market rose slightly, and the main varieties in the futures market rose and fell. Among them, rebar and hot-rolled coil rose by about 0.25%, iron ore rose by 0.62%, coke fell by 0.42%, and coking coal fell by 1.06%. The current market high-end resource transaction performance is poor, and the sentiment-driven steel price increase momentum has slowed down. It is expected that steel prices will fluctuate today.
National construction steel prices continue to rise, but transactions at high levels are sluggish
This week, the total inventory of the five major steel varieties was 13.3993 million tons, down 1,000 tons from the previous week. Among them, the inventory of steel mills was 4.238 million tons, down 97,200 tons from the previous week; the social inventory was 9.1613 million tons, up 96,200 tons from the previous week; on July 3, Mysteel’s imported iron ore 62% Australian powder ore forward spot index was 95.9, up 1.45, and the monthly average was 94.33; the 65% Brazilian powder ore forward spot index was 106.9, up 1.4, and the monthly average was 105.35. (Unit: US dollars/dry ton); on July 3, the domestic market for coking coal was stable and strong. Coking coal continued to rebound, and iron ore rose above US$95.
The average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 2.4085 million tons, a decrease of 14,400 tons from last week.
Mysteel surveyed 247 steel mills and found that the blast furnace operating rate was 83.46%, down 0.36 percentage points from last week and up 0.65 percentage points from last year; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.29%, down 0.54 percentage points from last week and up 1.21 percentage points from last year; the steel mill profit rate was 59.31%, the same as last week and up 14.72 percentage points from last year; the average daily molten iron output was 2.4085 million tons, down 14,400 tons from last week and up 15,300 tons from last year. Affected by the maintenance and production cuts of blast furnaces in some steel mills in Tangshan, the national blast furnace molten iron output decreased slightly this week. However, with the rebound in steel market prices, it is expected that the output may increase slightly next week, driving the strong performance of raw material prices. Costs still support steel prices, which is good for the trend of steel prices.
US non-farm data for June was better than expected, and hopes for a rate cut in July were basically dashed
The seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the United States in June were 147,000, higher than the expected 110,000, showing the resilience of the labor market; the non-farm report showed that employment growth exceeded expectations but the growth rate slowed down, and the Fed’s hopes for a rate cut in July were dashed, and the market’s probability of a rate cut in September dropped to 80%. At present, the Fed’s rate cut has been postponed, and the domestic monetary policy easing space is relatively limited, which is bearish for steel prices.
